Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
2026-10-25 · 8:30 AM CT · Scheduled · neutral site · NFL Paris Game
ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. 2026 season totals at this snapshot.
| Measure | Pittsburgh Steelers | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Points scored / game | 19.2 | 26.2 |
| Points allowed / game | 21.8 | 32.0 |
| Points differential | -10 | -23 |
| Home record | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Road record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
How this game can be won
Pittsburgh Steelers average 19.2 points scored and 21.8 allowed; New Orleans Saints average 26.2 scored and 32.0 allowed. The first question is whether each offense can make ordinary downs useful. Repeated manageable gains keep more of the playbook available.
Watch the long gains separately. An offense can move steadily without breaking a big play, or spend an afternoon waiting for one big play to rescue it. The more repeatable approach is the one that can still move the ball when the defense removes its easiest option.
Field position changes the job. Starting near midfield means fewer yards are needed before a scoring chance. Once the drive reaches threatening territory, watch whether the offense finishes it with useful points instead of wasting the trip.
Finally, count the lost possessions. Turnovers can change a close game without explaining every down that came before them. Our football model needs efficiency, explosive-play rate, starting field position, drive finishing and turnover margin together. A scoring average or a third-down rate cannot replace that set.
Closer to game day
Spreads and win probabilities are reserved for confirmed games within the next seven days. This game stays on the schedule; its forecast opens inside that window.
Pittsburgh Steelers · our 2026-10-06 assessment
Steelers | 2-2
Read the table as text
| Season evidence | Steelers | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Plays keeping pace | 39.9% | 45.1% |
| Long gains | 23 | 25 |
| Points / threatening drives | 70 / 20 | 80 / 24 |
| Defensive takeaways | 7 | 6 |
| Special-teams recoveries | 1 | 0 |
Pittsburgh's offense has improved from its opening two games, but the improvement remains uneven. Its share of useful plays rose from 32.8 and 35.8 percent to 48.2 and 43.8. The long gains also increased from four and three to nine and seven. The defense has helped by allowing only 80 offensive points on 24 threatening possessions, but opponents have still made ordinary progress more frequently than Pittsburgh. Seven of eight takeaways were defensive, with one special-teams recovery.
Aaron Rodgers said, “I missed some throws I usually hit”. Two interceptions and five sacks in the 27-24 loss support the assessment, though his final interception came on a desperation throw and should not be treated as the same decision as an earlier live possession. The offense has given the ball away in every game, six times overall. Rallying from 21-7 behind demonstrated a capacity to recover. Allowing Cleveland the final scoring drive demonstrated that recovering late is not the same as controlling the game.
After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Steelers possessions have begun at their own 19.2, on average, across 16 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 11.5 to their own 23.0. The latest game averaged their own 21.5. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 0 of those 16 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 69 punt-return yards over the season. Pre-snap changes before the first run or pass affected 1 of these drives; those changes are excluded from the listed starting spots. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 6 competitive possessions at their own 42.8 on average.
New Orleans Saints · our 2026-10-06 assessment
Saints | 1-3
Read the table as text
| Season evidence | Saints | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Plays keeping pace | 43.3% | 52.3% |
| Long gains | 21 | 26 |
| Points / threatening drives | 105 / 22 | 128 / 26 |
| Defensive takeaways | 2 | 8 |
| Special-teams recoveries | 1 | 0 |
New Orleans has repeatedly allowed opponents to move and finish with less resistance than its own offense receives. Opponents have made useful gains on 52.3 percent of plays, against the Saints' 43.3, and taken 128 offensive points from 26 threatening drives. The Saints have returned 105 from 22. Their offensive movement peaked in Week 3 but came with four giveaways. Monday brought fewer mistakes and still a 45-24 defeat, so possession alone does not explain the season's defensive problem.
Tyler Shough called the performance “embarrassing”. Allowing 205 rushing yards while producing 50, then watching Atlanta score on eight threatening possessions, gives the word numerical support. Kendre Miller's fumble created an early short field, and defensive holding extended the resulting touchdown drive. Those were two distinct forms of assistance. Only two of New Orleans's three team takeaways came from the defense; the other was on special teams. Eight giveaways, all outside special teams, have repeatedly added pressure to a defense already struggling without that help.
After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Saints possessions have begun at their own 23.1, on average, across 15 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 16.5 to their own 29.3. The latest game averaged their own 16.5. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 0 of those 15 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 47 punt-return yards over the season. Pre-snap changes before the first run or pass affected 2 of these drives; those changes are excluded from the listed starting spots. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 2 competitive possessions at their opponent 46.0 on average.
Our coverage of these teams
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