Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
2026-10-25 · 12:00 PM CT · Scheduled
ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. 2026 season totals at this snapshot.
| Measure | Miami Dolphins | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Points scored / game | 11.5 | 19.0 |
| Points allowed / game | 25.2 | 21.0 |
| Points differential | -55 | -8 |
| Home record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Road record | 0-3 | 1-2 |
How this game can be won
Miami Dolphins average 11.5 points scored and 25.2 allowed; New York Jets average 19.0 scored and 21.0 allowed. The first question is whether each offense can make ordinary downs useful. Repeated manageable gains keep more of the playbook available.
Watch the long gains separately. An offense can move steadily without breaking a big play, or spend an afternoon waiting for one big play to rescue it. The more repeatable approach is the one that can still move the ball when the defense removes its easiest option.
Field position changes the job. Starting near midfield means fewer yards are needed before a scoring chance. Once the drive reaches threatening territory, watch whether the offense finishes it with useful points instead of wasting the trip.
Finally, count the lost possessions. Turnovers can change a close game without explaining every down that came before them. Our football model needs efficiency, explosive-play rate, starting field position, drive finishing and turnover margin together. A scoring average or a third-down rate cannot replace that set.
Closer to game day
Spreads and win probabilities are reserved for confirmed games within the next seven days. This game stays on the schedule; its forecast opens inside that window.
Miami Dolphins · our 2026-10-06 assessment
Dolphins | 0-4
Read the table as text
| Season evidence | Dolphins | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Plays keeping pace | 30.5% | 48.0% |
| Long gains | 20 | 24 |
| Points / threatening drives | 46 / 14 | 101 / 22 |
| Defensive takeaways | 3 | 5 |
| Special-teams recoveries | 0 | 0 |
Miami has been the most consistently unsuccessful offense in this season window. Its weekly useful-play shares have stayed in a narrow band from 27.0 to 32.0 percent. That consistency is a problem, not reassurance. Scores of 13, 13, 10 and 10 show the same limitation from another angle. The offense has generated only 14 threatening drives and 46 points from them, while opponents have created 22 and returned 101. Its 20 long gains have not become a regular supply of completed scoring possessions.
Malik Willis said “we’re going out there and competing”. Sunday's 15-10 loss was closer than the previous defeats, but the offense reached threatening territory only twice and lost a fumble. A 53-yard run supplied a shortcut to one scoring chance; the ordinary progress remained weakest in the league's season window. Four sacks were welcome after none in the first three games, though a defense allowing useful gains on 48.0 percent of season plays has more to prove. Competition has become visible. Sustained offense has not.
After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Dolphins possessions have begun at their own 20.2, on average, across 11 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 15.3 to their own 27.2. The latest game averaged their own 27.2. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 0 of those 11 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 24 punt-return yards over the season. Pre-snap changes before the first run or pass affected 1 of these drives; those changes are excluded from the listed starting spots. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 3 competitive possessions at their opponent 49.7 on average.
New York Jets · our 2026-10-06 assessment
Jets | 1-3
Read the table as text
| Season evidence | Jets | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Plays keeping pace | 43.3% | 47.0% |
| Long gains | 20 | 21 |
| Points / threatening drives | 76 / 19 | 84 / 17 |
| Defensive takeaways | 3 | 1 |
| Special-teams recoveries | 1 | 0 |
The Jets have taken care of the ball, giving it away only once in four games, but clean possession has not become dependable possession. Their weekly useful-play shares have swung from 48.3 to 33.8 to 50.8 to 40.6 percent. The defense has allowed useful progress on 47.0 percent of plays and 84 offensive points from only 17 threatening drives. Three of the team's four takeaways were defensive, with the other coming on special teams. None of that adds up to enough stops and sustained answers.
Geno Smith said “keep our defense off the field”. Sunday's 0-for-7 third-down showing and the 89-to-32 play imbalance against Chicago make that less a slogan than an urgent instruction. The two takeaways did not rescue an offense that produced just two long gains. Chicago's waste near the goal line kept the 23-12 result within reach longer than the possession gap justified. New York's 1-3 season needs more than another clean giveaway column. It needs reasons to keep the next possession.
After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Jets possessions have begun at their own 21.9, on average, across 17 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 1.0 to their own 27.3. The latest game averaged their own 1.0. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 1 of those 17 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 31 punt-return yards over the season. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 4 competitive possessions at their opponent 29.5 on average.
Our coverage of these teams
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