Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
2026-10-18 · 8:30 AM CT · Scheduled · neutral site · NFL London Games
ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. 2026 season totals at this snapshot.
| Measure | Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Points scored / game | 21.0 | 26.0 |
| Points allowed / game | 27.2 | 13.2 |
| Points differential | -25 | +51 |
| Home record | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Road record | 0-1 | 1-1 |
How this game can be won
Houston Texans average 21.0 points scored and 27.2 allowed; Jacksonville Jaguars average 26.0 scored and 13.2 allowed. The first question is whether each offense can make ordinary downs useful. Repeated manageable gains keep more of the playbook available.
Watch the long gains separately. An offense can move steadily without breaking a big play, or spend an afternoon waiting for one big play to rescue it. The more repeatable approach is the one that can still move the ball when the defense removes its easiest option.
Field position changes the job. Starting near midfield means fewer yards are needed before a scoring chance. Once the drive reaches threatening territory, watch whether the offense finishes it with useful points instead of wasting the trip.
Finally, count the lost possessions. Turnovers can change a close game without explaining every down that came before them. Our football model needs efficiency, explosive-play rate, starting field position, drive finishing and turnover margin together. A scoring average or a third-down rate cannot replace that set.
Closer to game day
Spreads and win probabilities are reserved for confirmed games within the next seven days. This game stays on the schedule; its forecast opens inside that window.
Houston Texans · our 2026-10-06 assessment
Texans | 0-4
Read the table as text
| Season evidence | Texans | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Plays keeping pace | 42.8% | 41.1% |
| Long gains | 26 | 25 |
| Points / threatening drives | 84 / 22 | 109 / 28 |
| Defensive takeaways | 3 | 2 |
| Special-teams recoveries | 0 | 0 |
Houston's 0-4 record is worse than its balance of ordinary offensive and defensive play, but the recurring failures are clear. The offense's useful gains have varied from 36.8 to 50.0 percent, and the Week 2 attack produced only six points from six threatening possessions. The defense has allowed opponents to create 28 threatening drives, more than Houston's 22. The Texans have lost close games without a repeated stream of giveaways: only two all season, both in the opener.
DeMeco Ryans said “Our guys moved the ball really well”. Sunday's 30 points, eight long gains and no giveaways support him. The 34 allowed, including Dallas's late 74-yard touchdown drive, explain why that praise did not become a win. Jaylin Noel's 53-yard kickoff return helped Houston score in the third quarter; that shorter job belongs to the return unit, not a defensive stop. All three season defensive takeaways came in Week 3. The Texans cannot schedule another batch of those and call it the recovery plan.
After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Texans possessions have begun at their own 21.0, on average, across 14 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 15.0 to their own 28.0. The latest game averaged their own 15.0. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 0 of those 14 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 51 punt-return yards over the season. Pre-snap changes before the first run or pass affected 2 of these drives; those changes are excluded from the listed starting spots. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 3 competitive possessions at their own 35.7 on average.
Jacksonville Jaguars · our 2026-10-06 assessment
Jaguars | 3-1
Read the table as text
| Season evidence | Jaguars | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Plays keeping pace | 49.8% | 42.8% |
| Long gains | 23 | 21 |
| Points / threatening drives | 104 / 20 | 53 / 21 |
| Defensive takeaways | 8 | 2 |
| Special-teams recoveries | 0 | 0 |
Jacksonville has blended three dependable advantages: very few giveaways, repeated defensive takeaways and strong resistance when opponents threaten to score. Its opponents have collected only 53 offensive points from 21 threatening drives, while Jacksonville has returned 104 from 20. All eight takeaways were defensive plays, and the offense has given the ball away only twice. That combination explains a 3-1 start more convincingly than treating the latest 22-17 win as a stand-alone escape.
The offense still changes considerably from week to week. Its useful gains ranged from 43.6 to 60.4 percent of plays, and Sunday's 44.2 percent was closer to the lower end. Trevor Lawrence said “You’re going to have to win games like this”. True, but the defense cannot be the answer to every stalled possession. Jacksonville added six long gains Sunday after only three in the previous win. Its strongest season habit is protecting and recovering possession; maintaining ordinary progress would make the narrow finishes less necessary.
After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Jaguars possessions have begun at their own 23.6, on average, across 12 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 19.0 to their own 31.3. The latest game averaged their own 21.5. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 0 of those 12 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 15 punt-return yards over the season. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 8 competitive possessions at their own 45.9 on average.
Our coverage of these teams
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