Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
2026-10-25 · 3:05 PM CT · Scheduled
ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. 2026 season totals at this snapshot.
| Measure | Denver Broncos | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Points scored / game | 18.5 | 21.8 |
| Points allowed / game | 23.5 | 29.2 |
| Points differential | -20 | -30 |
| Home record | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Road record | 0-2 | 1-2 |
How this game can be won
Denver Broncos average 18.5 points scored and 23.5 allowed; Arizona Cardinals average 21.8 scored and 29.2 allowed. The first question is whether each offense can make ordinary downs useful. Repeated manageable gains keep more of the playbook available.
Watch the long gains separately. An offense can move steadily without breaking a big play, or spend an afternoon waiting for one big play to rescue it. The more repeatable approach is the one that can still move the ball when the defense removes its easiest option.
Field position changes the job. Starting near midfield means fewer yards are needed before a scoring chance. Once the drive reaches threatening territory, watch whether the offense finishes it with useful points instead of wasting the trip.
Finally, count the lost possessions. Turnovers can change a close game without explaining every down that came before them. Our football model needs efficiency, explosive-play rate, starting field position, drive finishing and turnover margin together. A scoring average or a third-down rate cannot replace that set.
Closer to game day
Spreads and win probabilities are reserved for confirmed games within the next seven days. This game stays on the schedule; its forecast opens inside that window.
Denver Broncos · our 2026-10-06 assessment
Broncos | 2-2
Read the table as text
| Season evidence | Broncos | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Plays keeping pace | 38.9% | 44.8% |
| Long gains | 16 | 28 |
| Points / threatening drives | 67 / 16 | 94 / 24 |
| Defensive takeaways | 4 | 4 |
| Special-teams recoveries | 0 | 1 |
Denver's offense has been inconsistent at finding long gains and consistently limited in the number of serious scoring chances it creates. Its weekly long gains have run one, nine, four and two. Across four games it has produced only 16 threatening possessions, against 24 for opponents. The defense has allowed 28 long gains while the offense has created 16. The two wins show that the Broncos can assemble enough offense; the losses show how little remains when the big gains shrink.
Sean Payton said “We just didn’t have enough offense”. Sunday's 24-14 defeat fits the full-season concern, with only two long gains and useful progress on 39.1 percent of plays. Marvin Mims Jr.'s muffed punt handed San Francisco its breakthrough touchdown possession. That was a special-teams giveaway and the only Denver giveaway Sunday, rather than evidence of an offensive interception habit. Four defensive takeaways over the season have not erased five team giveaways. At 2-2, Denver needs more possessions that threaten before it needs another late comeback.
After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Broncos possessions have begun at their own 22.8, on average, across 16 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 14.8 to their own 37.2. The latest game averaged their own 24.5. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 1 of those 16 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 78 punt-return yards over the season. Pre-snap changes before the first run or pass affected 1 of these drives; those changes are excluded from the listed starting spots. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 2 competitive possessions at their opponent 34.5 on average.
Arizona Cardinals · our 2026-10-06 assessment
Cardinals | 1-3
Read the table as text
| Season evidence | Cardinals | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Plays keeping pace | 45.9% | 41.2% |
| Long gains | 10 | 25 |
| Points / threatening drives | 84 / 19 | 111 / 23 |
| Defensive takeaways | 6 | 4 |
| Special-teams recoveries | 1 | 0 |
Arizona can make ordinary progress, but it rarely shortens the job with a long gain. Its offense has produced only 10 long runs or passes across four games while allowing 25. The contrast has persisted even when the offense moved well: Week 3 contained no qualifying long gains despite a 53.8 percent share of useful plays. That makes repeated clean execution important, and the latest game supplied the opposite. Three giveaways interrupted a 36-24 loss after a 14-3 lead.
Jacoby Brissett said “you can’t have three interceptions”. That is the straightforward diagnosis for Sunday, though it should not be rewritten as four weeks of the same mistake. Arizona had only one giveaway in the first three games combined. Six of its seven takeaways were defensive, with one special-teams recovery. Opponents have collected 111 offensive points from 23 threatening drives compared with Arizona's 84 from 19. The Cardinals' 1-3 record reflects both insufficient quick offense and too little resistance once opponents arrive near scoring territory.
After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Cardinals possessions have begun at their own 22.1, on average, across 13 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 14.7 to their own 29.0. The latest game averaged their own 15.7. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 1 of those 13 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 32 punt-return yards over the season. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 7 competitive possessions at their own 41.1 on average.
Our coverage of these teams
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