Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
2026-10-18 · 7:20 PM CT · Scheduled
ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. 2026 season totals at this snapshot.
| Measure | Dallas Cowboys | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Points scored / game | 30.5 | 18.2 |
| Points allowed / game | 28.0 | 26.2 |
| Points differential | +10 | -32 |
| Home record | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Road record | 1-1 | 2-1 |
How this game can be won
Dallas Cowboys average 30.5 points scored and 28.0 allowed; Green Bay Packers average 18.2 scored and 26.2 allowed. The first question is whether each offense can make ordinary downs useful. Repeated manageable gains keep more of the playbook available.
Watch the long gains separately. An offense can move steadily without breaking a big play, or spend an afternoon waiting for one big play to rescue it. The more repeatable approach is the one that can still move the ball when the defense removes its easiest option.
Field position changes the job. Starting near midfield means fewer yards are needed before a scoring chance. Once the drive reaches threatening territory, watch whether the offense finishes it with useful points instead of wasting the trip.
Finally, count the lost possessions. Turnovers can change a close game without explaining every down that came before them. Our football model needs efficiency, explosive-play rate, starting field position, drive finishing and turnover margin together. A scoring average or a third-down rate cannot replace that set.
Closer to game day
Spreads and win probabilities are reserved for confirmed games within the next seven days. This game stays on the schedule; its forecast opens inside that window.
Dallas Cowboys · our 2026-10-06 assessment
Cowboys | 2-2
Read the table as text
| Season evidence | Cowboys | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Plays keeping pace | 48.0% | 53.3% |
| Long gains | 17 | 30 |
| Points / threatening drives | 119 / 23 | 112 / 25 |
| Defensive takeaways | 2 | 2 |
| Special-teams recoveries | 0 | 0 |
Dallas has a relatively dependable offense and a defense that repeatedly gives the work back. Its useful offensive gains have stayed between 45.1 and 53.7 percent across four games, while the defense has allowed 53.3 percent over the season. The offense has returned 119 points from 23 threatening drives. Opponents have generated 25 such possessions and 30 long gains against Dallas's 17. Only two defensive takeaways have interrupted that flow. Two giveaways of its own are a strength, but protecting possession cannot prevent someone else from scoring.
Brian Schottenheimer said CeeDee Lamb “put on a show”. Seventeen catches for 189 yards, capped by the winning touchdown in the 34-30 comeback, support the praise. They also explain why Dallas needed such a show. The Cowboys gave nothing away, yet still required an 11-play, 74-yard final touchdown drive. Defensive pass-interference and holding penalties helped an earlier goal-line possession stay alive; those were assistance from Houston, not proof of effortless execution. The 2-2 record is balanced. The weekly burden on the offense is not.
After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Cowboys possessions have begun at their own 30.2, on average, across 11 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 15.0 to their own 36.0. The latest game averaged their own 29.2. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 1 of those 11 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 90 punt-return yards over the season. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 2 competitive possessions at their opponent 48.5 on average.
Green Bay Packers · our 2026-10-06 assessment
Packers | 2-2
Read the table as text
| Season evidence | Packers | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Plays keeping pace | 38.8% | 43.7% |
| Long gains | 19 | 17 |
| Points / threatening drives | 73 / 22 | 105 / 18 |
| Defensive takeaways | 4 | 6 |
| Special-teams recoveries | 0 | 0 |
Green Bay has been consistently modest at ordinary offensive progress and much less consistent at finishing. Its weekly useful-play share stayed between 34.0 and 42.3 percent, while its points from threatening drives ran 22 on eight, 20 on four, 14 on five and 17 on five. Opponents have earned 105 offensive points from only 18 threatening possessions against Green Bay's 73 from 22. The Packers have also given the ball away in every game, six times overall.
Matt LaFleur said “not to our standard”. Sunday's 17-14 win fits that assessment better than a celebration of being back to 2-2. The offense produced only three long gains and lost the ball twice after receiving much better ordinary starting positions than the previous week. The defense took the ball away twice and held Tampa Bay to two threatening drives. That was enough this time. Requiring the defense to keep the opponent below 17 is a demanding way to make a weekly offensive plan.
After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Packers possessions have begun at their own 29.9, on average, across 18 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 12.0 to their own 39.5. The latest game averaged their own 39.5. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 4 of those 18 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 128 punt-return yards over the season. Pre-snap changes before the first run or pass affected 4 of these drives; those changes are excluded from the listed starting spots. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 4 competitive possessions at their own 45.0 on average.
Our coverage of these teams
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