2026-10-08 · 6:30 PM CT · Preseason
New Orleans Pelicans26-56
Miami Heat43-39ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.
New Orleans Pelicans2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 115.5 | 16 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 43.9 | 15 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 25.1 | 24 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 13.5 | 11 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 8.9 | 9 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 5.2 | 9 / 30 |
| FG% | 46.6% | 20 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 24 / 30 |
| FT% | 78.4% | 14 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 27 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 11.7% | 10 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.284 | 8 / 30 |
Miami Heat2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 120.9 | 2 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 46.3 | 4 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 29.0 | 5 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 13.1 | 8 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 8.6 | 13 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 4.3 | 24 / 30 |
| FG% | 46.8% | 15 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 11 / 30 |
| FT% | 79.2% | 11 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 18 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 11.2% | 5 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.268 | 14 / 30 |
ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.
eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.
This is preseason. Use the team numbers as background and watch how the new lineups play together. No spread or Lab win probability is published for this game.
Last season 26-56 | 11th in the West | Missed postseason
2025-26 efficiency 113.3 offense | 117.6 defense | -4.4 net per 100 possessions
New Orleans finished 11th at 26-56 and missed the postseason. A minus-4.4 net rating reflected trouble at both ends. The Pelicans took a league-high 58 percent of their shots in the paint, yet their team conversion there was poor. Getting close to the basket and getting a useful attempt are different accomplishments.
Joe Dumars hired Jamahl Mosley and added Bennedict Mathurin, AJ Johnson and Trendon Watford. Mathurin supplies scoring and free-throw pressure. Dejounte Murray's return gives the existing group a more experienced organizer, while Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen enter their second seasons. Trey Murphy and Zion Williamson remain important offensive pieces around that developing foundation.
The front office has largely retained the core that produced 26 wins. That places a considerable burden on Mosley to improve a defense that allowed 117.6 points per 100 possessions and on the young players to become more efficient. Mathurin's ability to draw fouls helps, but does not by itself resolve paint congestion or lineup defense. Herbert Jones rediscovering his defensive impact would matter more than simply adding another scorer.
Projected finish is 12th in the West. Better organization and internal growth should make New Orleans more competitive, but the defensive evidence is still too weak for a playoff prediction. There is a plausible path into the Play-In race. It starts with a functioning five-man defense and ends with better conversion from the shots this team already prefers.
Last season 43-39 | 10th in the East | Lost in SoFi Play-In Tournament
2025-26 efficiency 115.8 offense | 113.6 defense | +2.1 net per 100 possessions
Miami finished tenth at 43-39 and exited the Play-In. The Heat's fast offense produced 24.9 percent of its possessions in transition, a remarkably large share. That pace helped compensate for ordinary half-court efficiency. The new roster gives Miami a stronger version of that advantage, while introducing a different spacing problem.
Pat Riley acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis, then added Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. Giannis and Bam Adebayo create a formidable defensive frontcourt. Thompson and Hardaway supply shooting around them, with Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell giving Erik Spoelstra additional two-way pieces. Giannis' ability to turn a defensive stop into immediate rim pressure fits the desire to run.
The front office improved the star talent without making half-court organization simple. Giannis and Adebayo both need useful space near the basket, and neither routinely drags a defender to the three-point line. The new shooters help, but some of those lineups will need protection on defense. Miami also has less established perimeter creation after the trade. Spoelstra must determine how to keep both the shooting and the defensive advantages on the floor.
Projected finish is seventh in the East. Miami can be a more dangerous playoff opponent than its seed, especially when Giannis is available and the defensive pairing works. We allow for health and integration across the regular season. Buying a superstar gives the Heat a real ceiling. The remaining assignment is building enough practical lineups to reach it.
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