2026-10-26 · 6:30 PM CT · Regular season
Dallas Mavericks26-56
Miami Heat43-39ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.
Dallas Mavericks2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 114.1 | 23 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 44.7 | 10 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 25.3 | 22 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 14.0 | 18 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 7.5 | 24 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 5.2 | 10 / 30 |
| FG% | 46.6% | 19 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 26 / 30 |
| FT% | 75.5% | 28 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 28 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 12.1% | 14 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.287 | 6 / 30 |
Miami Heat2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 120.9 | 2 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 46.3 | 4 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 29.0 | 5 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 13.1 | 8 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 8.6 | 13 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 4.3 | 24 / 30 |
| FG% | 46.8% | 15 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 11 / 30 |
| FT% | 79.2% | 11 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 18 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 11.2% | 5 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.268 | 14 / 30 |
ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.
eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.
Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat enter with scoring averages of 114.1 and 120.9. Start with the kinds of shots they get, not just how many points they score. A clean shot at the rim or an open three can matter more than another difficult jumper.
The shooting comparison is 52.7% eFG for Dallas Mavericks and 54.2% for Miami Heat. That measure counts the extra value of a made three. If the defense takes away the first good look, watch whether the offense can create another without rushing.
Ball security is the next pressure point. Dallas Mavericks turn it over on an estimated 12.1% of plays; Miami Heat are at 11.2%. Fewer wasted trips mean more chances to score and fewer easy chances going the other way.
After the shot, watch the rebound. Then watch which team earns free throws. Extra shots and trips to the line can keep an offense moving when the shooting cools. The season columns give the baseline; the game columns in our final breakdown will show which advantages actually held up.
Spreads and win probabilities are reserved for confirmed games within the next seven days. This game stays on the schedule; its forecast opens inside that window.
Last season 26-56 | 12th in the West | Missed postseason, Flagg won Rookie of the Year
2025-26 efficiency 110.3 offense | 115.5 defense | -5.2 net per 100 possessions
Dallas finished 12th at 26-56, but Cooper Flagg's Rookie of the Year season supplied a clear direction. The team ranked 27th offensively, and its transition success concealed the league's worst half-court efficiency. Running faster could produce good stretches. It could not solve the possessions that began against an organized defense.
Masai Ujiri took over the basketball operation and hired Dusty May. Santi Aldama, Zaccharie Risacher and Marcus Sasser give the roster younger supporting options, and Kyrie Irving returns after missing a season. Irving is the clearest route to improving half-court creation without asking Flagg to manufacture every advantage himself. Aldama can also help make the frontcourt easier to space.
The unresolved question is whether management is building a coherent team around Flagg's development or preserving several competing timelines. Irving helps immediately, but his role and long-term place matter. Risacher needs to become a useful rotation wing, not simply a former first pick with another chance. May also has to find combinations that avoid crowding Flagg's drives. More pace cannot replace spacing when the opponent gets back.
Projected finish is 11th in the West. We expect an offensive improvement and a second-year step from Flagg, without assuming an immediate star leap large enough to erase every roster weakness. Dallas is a reasonable Play-In challenger if Irving's return goes well. A meaningful season would establish which players make Flagg more effective and belong in the next version of the team.
Last season 43-39 | 10th in the East | Lost in SoFi Play-In Tournament
2025-26 efficiency 115.8 offense | 113.6 defense | +2.1 net per 100 possessions
Miami finished tenth at 43-39 and exited the Play-In. The Heat's fast offense produced 24.9 percent of its possessions in transition, a remarkably large share. That pace helped compensate for ordinary half-court efficiency. The new roster gives Miami a stronger version of that advantage, while introducing a different spacing problem.
Pat Riley acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis, then added Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. Giannis and Bam Adebayo create a formidable defensive frontcourt. Thompson and Hardaway supply shooting around them, with Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell giving Erik Spoelstra additional two-way pieces. Giannis' ability to turn a defensive stop into immediate rim pressure fits the desire to run.
The front office improved the star talent without making half-court organization simple. Giannis and Adebayo both need useful space near the basket, and neither routinely drags a defender to the three-point line. The new shooters help, but some of those lineups will need protection on defense. Miami also has less established perimeter creation after the trade. Spoelstra must determine how to keep both the shooting and the defensive advantages on the floor.
Projected finish is seventh in the East. Miami can be a more dangerous playoff opponent than its seed, especially when Giannis is available and the defensive pairing works. We allow for health and integration across the regular season. Buying a superstar gives the Heat a real ceiling. The remaining assignment is building enough practical lineups to reach it.
A matching published game video is not available in the verified archive yet.
