Green Bay Packers 17 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

Game played 2026-10-04. These assessments cover the season through October 5, 2026, including this game.

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Packers | 2-2

Green Bay has been consistently modest at ordinary offensive progress and much less consistent at finishing. Its weekly useful-play share stayed between 34.0 and 42.3 percent, while its points from threatening drives ran 22 on eight, 20 on four, 14 on five and 17 on five. Opponents have earned 105 offensive points from only 18 threatening possessions against Green Bay's 73 from 22. The Packers have also given the ball away in every game, six times overall.

Matt LaFleur said “not to our standard”. Sunday's 17-14 win fits that assessment better than a celebration of being back to 2-2. The offense produced only three long gains and lost the ball twice after receiving much better ordinary starting positions than the previous week. The defense took the ball away twice and held Tampa Bay to two threatening drives. That was enough this time. Requiring the defense to keep the opponent below 17 is a demanding way to make a weekly offensive plan.

After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Packers possessions have begun at their own 29.9, on average, across 18 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 12.0 to their own 39.5. The latest game averaged their own 39.5. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 4 of those 18 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 128 punt-return yards over the season. Pre-snap changes before the first run or pass affected 4 of these drives; those changes are excluded from the listed starting spots. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 4 competitive possessions at their own 45.0 on average.

Buccaneers | 0-4

Tampa Bay has repeatedly limited ordinary gains without receiving enough dependable offense in return. Across the season, its own useful-play share of 38.2 percent is almost identical to the 38.7 percent it allows. The problem is possession and opportunity: nine offensive giveaways against four defensive takeaways, with opponents producing 20 threatening drives against Tampa Bay's 16. The defense can keep scores manageable. It cannot make each offensive mistake free.

Sunday's 17-14 loss had more functional offense than Week 3, when only 21.9 percent of plays produced enough progress. The rebound to 45.9 percent came with just two threatening drives and another two giveaways. Tampa Bay scored touchdowns on both opportunities; reaching that territory only twice was the larger limitation. The weekly giveaway sequence of four, one, two and two makes carelessness a repeated concern. An 0-4 team that remains close has something to preserve, but close is becoming the most consistent part of the operation.

After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Buccaneers possessions have begun at their own 29.8, on average, across 18 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 23.0 to their own 35.8. The latest game averaged their own 23.0. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 1 of those 18 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 80 punt-return yards over the season. Pre-snap changes before the first run or pass affected 1 of these drives; those changes are excluded from the listed starting spots. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 3 competitive possessions at their own 32.3 on average.