Atlanta Falcons

Our team assessment

Article cutoff 2026-10-06

Falcons | 2-2

Atlanta's season divides cleanly into two halves. Its offense kept moving on only 36.8 and 34.3 percent of plays in the first two games, then 59.4 and 59.3 percent in the last two. The scores followed: 16 combined points became 80. Michael Penix Jr.'s return coincides with that improvement, but two excellent games are still a change in direction rather than proof of four-game consistency. The defense's season record is stronger, allowing useful gains on 37.7 percent of plays.

Kevin Stefanski said Penix “took care of the football”. Monday's clean game supports the claim, as do Atlanta's one giveaway across the two wins compared with seven across the two losses. The Falcons ran for 205 yards while allowing New Orleans only 50 and scored 45 points on eight threatening possessions. That was production beyond the early short-field touchdown following Kendre Miller's fumble. The remaining concern is whether the cleaner offense persists when it loses Monday's comfortable starting positions. The early disasters still count, even after the fun returns.

After opponent punts or failed fourth downs, Falcons possessions have begun at their own 25.2, on average, across 21 competitive drives. The weekly average has varied widely, from their own 16.2 to their own 37.5. The latest game averaged their own 37.5. The resulting possession started at midfield or closer to the end zone in 2 of those 21 cases. These are actual starting spots, including punt returns, rather than a measure of the defense alone. The return unit has added 87 punt-return yards over the season. Pre-snap changes before the first run or pass affected 2 of these drives; those changes are excluded from the listed starting spots. Starts following turnovers are counted separately: 2 competitive possessions at their opponent 23.5 on average.

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