2026-10-11 · 1:00 PM CT · Scheduled · WNBA Semifinals - Game 4 If Necessary
Atlanta Dream30-14
New York Liberty26-18ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. MLB and WNBA comparisons use regular-season totals, separate from playoff results.
Atlanta Dream2026 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 91.3 | 3 / 15 |
| Rebounds / game | 35.6 | 2 / 15 |
| Assists / game | 21.5 | 6 / 15 |
| Turnovers / game | 12.6 | 4 / 15 |
| Steals / game | 9.1 | 1 / 15 |
| Blocks / game | 3.3 | 14 / 15 |
| FG% | 44.3% | 11 / 15 |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 11 / 15 |
| FT% | 78.6% | 10 / 15 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 8 / 15 |
| Turnover rate | 13.3% | 3 / 15 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.341 | 3 / 15 |
New York Liberty2026 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 89.6 | 5 / 15 |
| Rebounds / game | 35.5 | 3 / 15 |
| Assists / game | 20.8 | 7 / 15 |
| Turnovers / game | 13.7 | 9 / 15 |
| Steals / game | 6.1 | 14 / 15 |
| Blocks / game | 4.2 | 7 / 15 |
| FG% | 46.0% | 6 / 15 |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 4 / 15 |
| FT% | 84.5% | 1 / 15 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 4 / 15 |
| Turnover rate | 15.2% | 10 / 15 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.307 | 7 / 15 |
ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. WNBA season averages and ranks use the 2026 regular season; playoff game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.
eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.
Atlanta Dream and New York Liberty enter with scoring averages of 91.3 and 89.6. Start with the kinds of shots they get, not just how many points they score. A clean shot at the rim or an open three can matter more than another difficult jumper.
The shooting comparison is 50.5% eFG for Atlanta Dream and 53.6% for New York Liberty. That measure counts the extra value of a made three. If the defense takes away the first good look, watch whether the offense can create another without rushing.
Ball security is the next pressure point. Atlanta Dream turn it over on an estimated 13.3% of plays; New York Liberty are at 15.2%. Fewer wasted trips mean more chances to score and fewer easy chances going the other way.
After the shot, watch the rebound. Then watch which team earns free throws. Extra shots and trips to the line can keep an offense moving when the shooting cools. The season columns give the baseline; the game columns in our final breakdown will show which advantages actually held up.
ESPN completed 2026 WNBA regular-season and playoff box scores, checked October 6. We apply the Lab measures, fit their relationship to the scoring margin, then sample possible results from the scoring errors observed in completed games.
Atlanta Dream52.1%New York Liberty47.9%Standard deviation shows how widely the simulated scoring margins vary. A larger number means a less steady outcome; it is not the error bar on the win percentage.
Atlanta DreamNew York Liberty
| Lab measure | Weight | Home − away · z | Baseline margin effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting · eFG% | 40% | +1.72 | +6.8 pts |
| Ball security · TOV% | 25% | -3.59 | -8.8 pts |
| Offensive rebounds · OREB% | 20% | -1.05 | -2.1 pts |
| Free-throw pressure · FTA/FGA | 15% | +0.59 | +0.9 pts |
Positive effects favor New York Liberty; negative effects favor Atlanta Dream. Both offense and defense enter the net factors. Home-court / field term +2.5 points. These effects explain the fitted baseline; the simulation also varies its fitted coefficients and game outcomes.
Five-game league-average prior; forecasts require five previous games for both teams. New provisional editorial weights 40/25/20/15 percent; not fitted factor coefficients. Profiles use 2026-10-04T20:00Z. Historical calibration uses only each game’s earlier factor data; 302 completed games fit the margin and home advantage.
Chronological check 88 held-out games; margin RMSE 13.6 points; Brier score 0.183 (50/50 baseline 0.250; lower is better). The final fit then uses all available earlier games. This check is not proof of future calibration.
Outcome noise resamples observed scoring-margin errors, preserving the shape of the available results instead of imposing a bell curve. Fifty bootstrap fits capture some uncertainty in the fitted coefficients. Between-batch win-rate standard deviation 3.0 percentage points. Monte Carlo sampling standard error 0.16 percentage points applies to the unsplit positive-margin frequency; it excludes model error. Zero-margin trials (3.1%) are split equally to estimate the final winner. That is an explicit overtime assumption, not a modeled overtime system.
Injuries, starting lineup changes, rest, travel and postseason rotation changes are not adjusted. The model uses no market odds. Forecast snapshot October 6 at 10:49 AM CT; only confirmed regular-season or playoff games in the following seven days qualify.
