Chelsea at Everton

How this game can be won

Chelsea have 7 table points; Everton have 9. Chelsea have scored 10 goals and allowed 12; Everton have scored 6 and allowed 3. That tells us what has happened, but the match still comes down to the chances each side creates.

Watch where the ball is being won and where the next pass goes. Keeping possession in harmless areas does little for either side. The useful sign is a team repeatedly getting behind the midfield and finding a player facing the goal.

Then watch the response when possession is lost. A coordinated press can stop the counterattack early. One player chasing on their own can leave room for the next pass. We need verified pressing and field-tilt data to grade that advantage; table position does not supply it.

The final test is shot quality. Several low-quality efforts can look busy without making the goalkeeper work. Compare chances from dangerous positions, and keep the draw in the forecast. The current feed does not supply xG per shot, field tilt or PPDA, so those measures are not filled in from goals or possession.