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NBA · MATCHUP PREVIEW

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns

2026-10-10 · 9:30 PM CT · Preseason

ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.

The team numbers

San Antonio Spurs

2025–26 regular season

MeasureSeason averageLeague rank
STANDARD STATS
Points / game119.83 / 30
Rebounds / game47.02 / 30
Assists / game28.19 / 30
Turnovers / game12.64 / 30
Steals / game7.525 / 30
Blocks / game5.58 / 30
FG%48.3%6 / 30
3PT%35.9%15 / 30
FT%78.7%12 / 30
THE LAB MEASURES
eFG%55.9%7 / 30
Turnover rate11.2%4 / 30
Offensive rebound rate——
Free-throw pressure0.27412 / 30

Phoenix Suns

2025–26 regular season

MeasureSeason averageLeague rank
STANDARD STATS
Points / game112.626 / 30
Rebounds / game43.120 / 30
Assists / game24.627 / 30
Turnovers / game13.512 / 30
Steals / game9.54 / 30
Blocks / game4.225 / 30
FG%45.5%28 / 30
3PT%36.1%12 / 30
FT%78.1%15 / 30
THE LAB MEASURES
eFG%53.7%19 / 30
Turnover rate12.0%13 / 30
Offensive rebound rate——
Free-throw pressure0.22528 / 30

ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.

How we read the Lab measures

eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.

THE LAB READ

How this game can be won

This is preseason. Use the team numbers as background and watch how the new lineups play together. No spread or Lab win probability is published for this game.

San Antonio Spurs · our 2026-10-03 assessment

San Antonio Spurs

Last season 62-20 | 2nd in the West | Western champions, NBA Finals loss to New York

2025-26 efficiency 118.7 offense | 110.4 defense | +8.4 net per 100 possessions

San Antonio went from a developing team to a 62-win Western Conference champion, then lost the Finals to New York in five games. Its 118.7 offensive rating and 110.4 defensive rating show why the rise was credible. Victor Wembanyama changed both ends, and the guards supplied enough creation to make the team more than a collection of promising young players.

Brian Wright added Tobias Harris and retained the core, including an extension for Julian Champagnie. Harris gives the forward rotation another experienced scorer. The larger potential gains come from Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper. Castle's assists per 36 minutes increased from 5.5 to 8.9, while Harper's stronger playoff role supplied evidence that more responsibility can be productive.

The front office has chosen development as its main answer to the Finals defeat. That is a defensible choice, but it leaves the same important test. When opponents reduce easy rim chances, can the guards and Wembanyama create efficient shots without rushing the next possession? De'Aaron Fox's fit with a growing Harper also requires a clear closing lineup. Harris helps the rotation, but does not settle those decisions.

Projected finish is first in the West. The two-way baseline was already excellent, and the age of the core supports another step forward. We expect a close race with Oklahoma City rather than an automatic runaway. The playoff challenge is converting that progress into better late-game execution.

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Phoenix Suns · our 2026-10-03 assessment

Phoenix Suns

Last season 45-37 | 7th in the West | First-round loss to Oklahoma City, 4-0

2025-26 efficiency 114.2 offense | 112.9 defense | +1.4 net per 100 possessions

Phoenix finished seventh with 45 wins and reached the playoffs through the Play-In before Oklahoma City swept it. Jordan Ott's first season produced a ninth-ranked defense after the prior year's collapse. The Suns also created extra shot opportunities through offensive rebounding and forced turnovers. That explains why a merely average offensive efficiency profile still supported a winning record.

Brian Gregory traded Grayson Allen and Royce O'Neale for Miles Bridges and added Luke Kennard. Bridges brings another scoring forward, and Kennard replaces part of the departing shooting. Phoenix retained Collin Gillespie and other useful contributors around Devin Booker. Gillespie's continued production matters more now that Allen and O'Neale's spacing is gone.

The largest immediate concern is at center. Mark Williams' shoulder surgery leaves a substantial absence with no official return timetable, putting more responsibility on Khaman Maluach and Oso Ighodaro. Adding Bridges does not replace a starting center or guarantee that the defensive gains survive. Management has changed the offensive mix, but the remaining roster still needs stronger finishing and enough size to keep its possession advantage against good teams.

Projected finish is eighth in the West. Booker and Ott give Phoenix a credible floor, but a repeat of 45 wins requires the young centers to contribute sooner. We expect a Play-In team rather than a dramatic rise. The important evidence will be whether the Suns keep generating extra chances while improving the value of the first shot.

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Our coverage of these teams

A matching published game video is not available in the verified archive yet.

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