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NBA · MATCHUP PREVIEW

Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs

2026-10-16 · 7:00 PM CT · Preseason

ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.

The team numbers

Sacramento Kings

2025–26 regular season

MeasureSeason averageLeague rank
STANDARD STATS
Points / game111.028 / 30
Rebounds / game42.322 / 30
Assists / game25.520 / 30
Turnovers / game13.715 / 30
Steals / game8.020 / 30
Blocks / game4.520 / 30
FG%46.7%18 / 30
3PT%34.0%29 / 30
FT%77.2%21 / 30
THE LAB MEASURES
eFG%52.5%29 / 30
Turnover rate12.2%15 / 30
Offensive rebound rate——
Free-throw pressure0.25619 / 30

San Antonio Spurs

2025–26 regular season

MeasureSeason averageLeague rank
STANDARD STATS
Points / game119.83 / 30
Rebounds / game47.02 / 30
Assists / game28.19 / 30
Turnovers / game12.64 / 30
Steals / game7.525 / 30
Blocks / game5.58 / 30
FG%48.3%6 / 30
3PT%35.9%15 / 30
FT%78.7%12 / 30
THE LAB MEASURES
eFG%55.9%7 / 30
Turnover rate11.2%4 / 30
Offensive rebound rate——
Free-throw pressure0.27412 / 30

ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.

How we read the Lab measures

eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.

THE LAB READ

How this game can be won

This is preseason. Use the team numbers as background and watch how the new lineups play together. No spread or Lab win probability is published for this game.

Sacramento Kings · our 2026-10-03 assessment

Sacramento Kings

Last season 22-60 | 14th in the West | Missed postseason

2025-26 efficiency 110.6 offense | 120.3 defense | -9.7 net per 100 possessions

Sacramento finished 14th at 22-60 and missed the postseason. Its minus-9.7 net rating came from a 26th-ranked offense and a 28th-ranked defense. Injuries mattered, with Domantas Sabonis playing only 19 games and Keegan Murray only 23. Even allowing for those absences, the roster did not establish a convincing plan for stopping anyone.

Scott Perry drafted Darius Acuff Jr., moved on from DeMar DeRozan and added Ben Simmons. Acuff gives the backcourt a young scorer and creator to develop, while Alex Karaban and Emanuel Sharp add more youth. Sabonis, Murray and Zach LaVine returning to better health would make the team more functional than the version that finished last season.

The unfinished business is roster direction. Sabonis needs shooting and reliable perimeter defense around him. Acuff needs room to learn with the ball. LaVine needs a defined scoring role, and Simmons adds another player opponents can leave unattended away from the rim. Those needs do not automatically fit together. Perry has begun a reset, but has not assembled an obvious defensive identity or resolved how the veterans support the new backcourt.

Projected finish is 15th in the West. Better availability can improve the record while leaving Sacramento last in a stronger conference. The forecast is driven by the defensive deficit and uncertain fit, rather than an assumption that Acuff cannot play. Management needs to make the development priorities clear before every lineup becomes a negotiation between rebuilding and preserving yesterday's investment.

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San Antonio Spurs · our 2026-10-03 assessment

San Antonio Spurs

Last season 62-20 | 2nd in the West | Western champions, NBA Finals loss to New York

2025-26 efficiency 118.7 offense | 110.4 defense | +8.4 net per 100 possessions

San Antonio went from a developing team to a 62-win Western Conference champion, then lost the Finals to New York in five games. Its 118.7 offensive rating and 110.4 defensive rating show why the rise was credible. Victor Wembanyama changed both ends, and the guards supplied enough creation to make the team more than a collection of promising young players.

Brian Wright added Tobias Harris and retained the core, including an extension for Julian Champagnie. Harris gives the forward rotation another experienced scorer. The larger potential gains come from Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper. Castle's assists per 36 minutes increased from 5.5 to 8.9, while Harper's stronger playoff role supplied evidence that more responsibility can be productive.

The front office has chosen development as its main answer to the Finals defeat. That is a defensible choice, but it leaves the same important test. When opponents reduce easy rim chances, can the guards and Wembanyama create efficient shots without rushing the next possession? De'Aaron Fox's fit with a growing Harper also requires a clear closing lineup. Harris helps the rotation, but does not settle those decisions.

Projected finish is first in the West. The two-way baseline was already excellent, and the age of the core supports another step forward. We expect a close race with Oklahoma City rather than an automatic runaway. The playoff challenge is converting that progress into better late-game execution.

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Our coverage of these teams

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