2026-10-26 · 7:00 PM CT · Regular season
Phoenix Suns45-37ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.
Phoenix Suns2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 112.6 | 26 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 43.1 | 20 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 24.6 | 27 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 13.5 | 12 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 9.5 | 4 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 4.2 | 25 / 30 |
| FG% | 45.5% | 28 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 12 / 30 |
| FT% | 78.1% | 15 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 19 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 12.0% | 13 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.225 | 28 / 30 |
Oklahoma City Thunder2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 119.0 | 5 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 44.1 | 12 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 25.8 | 19 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 12.0 | 2 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 9.7 | 2 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 5.5 | 6 / 30 |
| FG% | 48.4% | 5 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 9 / 30 |
| FT% | 81.7% | 3 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 4 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 10.8% | 2 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.261 | 17 / 30 |
ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.
eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.
Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder enter with scoring averages of 112.6 and 119.0. Start with the kinds of shots they get, not just how many points they score. A clean shot at the rim or an open three can matter more than another difficult jumper.
The shooting comparison is 53.7% eFG for Phoenix Suns and 56.1% for Oklahoma City Thunder. That measure counts the extra value of a made three. If the defense takes away the first good look, watch whether the offense can create another without rushing.
Ball security is the next pressure point. Phoenix Suns turn it over on an estimated 12.0% of plays; Oklahoma City Thunder are at 10.8%. Fewer wasted trips mean more chances to score and fewer easy chances going the other way.
After the shot, watch the rebound. Then watch which team earns free throws. Extra shots and trips to the line can keep an offense moving when the shooting cools. The season columns give the baseline; the game columns in our final breakdown will show which advantages actually held up.
Spreads and win probabilities are reserved for confirmed games within the next seven days. This game stays on the schedule; its forecast opens inside that window.
Last season 45-37 | 7th in the West | First-round loss to Oklahoma City, 4-0
2025-26 efficiency 114.2 offense | 112.9 defense | +1.4 net per 100 possessions
Phoenix finished seventh with 45 wins and reached the playoffs through the Play-In before Oklahoma City swept it. Jordan Ott's first season produced a ninth-ranked defense after the prior year's collapse. The Suns also created extra shot opportunities through offensive rebounding and forced turnovers. That explains why a merely average offensive efficiency profile still supported a winning record.
Brian Gregory traded Grayson Allen and Royce O'Neale for Miles Bridges and added Luke Kennard. Bridges brings another scoring forward, and Kennard replaces part of the departing shooting. Phoenix retained Collin Gillespie and other useful contributors around Devin Booker. Gillespie's continued production matters more now that Allen and O'Neale's spacing is gone.
The largest immediate concern is at center. Mark Williams' shoulder surgery leaves a substantial absence with no official return timetable, putting more responsibility on Khaman Maluach and Oso Ighodaro. Adding Bridges does not replace a starting center or guarantee that the defensive gains survive. Management has changed the offensive mix, but the remaining roster still needs stronger finishing and enough size to keep its possession advantage against good teams.
Projected finish is eighth in the West. Booker and Ott give Phoenix a credible floor, but a repeat of 45 wins requires the young centers to contribute sooner. We expect a Play-In team rather than a dramatic rise. The important evidence will be whether the Suns keep generating extra chances while improving the value of the first shot.
Last season 64-18 | 1st in the West | Conference finals loss to San Antonio, 4-3
2025-26 efficiency 117.6 offense | 106.5 defense | +11.1 net per 100 possessions
The Thunder's 64 wins were supported by a plus-11.1 net rating and the league's best defense, which allowed 106.5 points per 100 possessions. This was not a team surviving on close-game fortune. But San Antonio ended its title defense in a seven-game conference final, where Oklahoma City's depleted creation and Chet Holmgren's hesitation mattered more than the full-season margin.
Sam Presti retained Isaiah Hartenstein and the expensive star core while moving Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Rookie Aday Mara adds size, but the immediate replacements for those perimeter minutes are mostly already employed. Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell will have larger responsibilities, and Jalen Williams returning to dependable health is a bigger offensive addition than the transaction list suggests.
The unresolved issue is dependable depth around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Losing three rotation players reduces the number of useful combinations when injuries or matchups remove a starter. Presti's financial explanation is understandable. It does not make those minutes disappear. Oklahoma City can remain an elite defense and still miss Joe's shooting or Dort's difficult assignments in a particular series.
Projected finish is second in the West. The defensive baseline keeps the floor extremely high. We give San Antonio the slight edge because its young creators can improve without replacing as much of the rotation. A healthy Williams and Mitchell would make first place entirely reasonable.
A matching published game video is not available in the verified archive yet.
