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NBA · MATCHUP PREVIEW

Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies

2026-10-07 · 7:00 PM CT · Preseason

ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.

The team numbers

Orlando Magic

2025–26 regular season

MeasureSeason averageLeague rank
STANDARD STATS
Points / game115.715 / 30
Rebounds / game43.419 / 30
Assists / game26.514 / 30
Turnovers / game13.714 / 30
Steals / game8.516 / 30
Blocks / game4.717 / 30
FG%46.4%21 / 30
3PT%34.3%27 / 30
FT%80.1%8 / 30
THE LAB MEASURES
eFG%53.1%25 / 30
Turnover rate12.0%12 / 30
Offensive rebound rate——
Free-throw pressure0.3112 / 30

Memphis Grizzlies

2025–26 regular season

MeasureSeason averageLeague rank
STANDARD STATS
Points / game114.720 / 30
Rebounds / game42.123 / 30
Assists / game27.810 / 30
Turnovers / game14.624 / 30
Steals / game8.810 / 30
Blocks / game4.816 / 30
FG%45.6%27 / 30
3PT%35.3%22 / 30
FT%79.3%9 / 30
THE LAB MEASURES
eFG%53.3%24 / 30
Turnover rate12.7%22 / 30
Offensive rebound rate——
Free-throw pressure0.25121 / 30

ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.

How we read the Lab measures

eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.

THE LAB READ

How this game can be won

This is preseason. Use the team numbers as background and watch how the new lineups play together. No spread or Lab win probability is published for this game.

Orlando Magic · our 2026-10-03 assessment

Orlando Magic

Last season 45-37 | 8th in the East | Lost in First Round

2025-26 efficiency 114.2 offense | 113.6 defense | +0.6 net per 100 possessions

Orlando finished eighth at 45-37 and lost a seven-game first-round series to Detroit after leading 3-1. The Magic improved offensively but still had a below-average attack, with a 114.2 offensive rating. Franz Wagner's limited availability and Jalen Suggs' missed time also prevented a dependable version of the intended rotation.

The front office replaced Jamahl Mosley with Sean Sweeney and brought Nikola Vucevic back for frontcourt depth. Paolo Banchero, Wagner and Desmond Bane remain the major scoring pieces, with Anthony Black entering a larger stage of his development. A healthier Wagner and Suggs could improve the team substantially without a major trade.

Management changed the coach more than the offensive personnel. That leaves the same difficult requirement, converting good opportunities into efficient points. Orlando ranked 28th in wide-open three-point percentage at 36.5 percent despite generating plenty of those attempts. Vucevic adds another offensive option, but the new coach still needs lineups that preserve the defense while finding dependable shooting. Banchero's efficiency and Black's outside shot remain player-development assignments that no change of voice can complete by itself.

Projected finish is ninth in the East. We expect better health to help, but do not assume a major offensive breakthrough from a mostly returning roster. The Magic have a credible route to the direct-playoff group, and outside forecasts vary widely. That route requires evidence of better conversion and sustained two-way lineups, rather than another season spent explaining the shots that should have gone in.

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Memphis Grizzlies · our 2026-10-03 assessment

Memphis Grizzlies

Last season 25-57 | 13th in the West | Missed postseason

2025-26 efficiency 112.4 offense | 118.4 defense | -6.0 net per 100 possessions

Memphis finished 13th at 25-57 with a minus-6.0 net rating. Its old core had already begun to dissolve when Jaren Jackson Jr. moved to Utah during the season. Ja Morant's summer trade to Portland makes the change of direction unmistakable. The next successful Grizzlies team will need to establish its own strengths.

Zach Kleiman drafted Cameron Boozer and added Jerami Grant, Isaiah Stewart and Quinten Post among the roster changes. Boozer provides the potential centerpiece, with Cedric Coward coming off an encouraging rookie season. Stewart supplies toughness and frontcourt support. Zach Edey's availability is important because his size can give the young lineup a concrete advantage rather than only future promise.

The concern is how the frontcourt functions together and who consistently starts the offense. A collection of big players can rebound well without defending effectively in space. Ty Jerome's productive scoring came in a small sample last season, so it should not be treated as established full-season starter production. Kleiman has made the timeline clearer, but the young players still need dependable guard play and a more stable defensive structure.

Projected finish is 13th in the West. Boozer's skill and the frontcourt additions should keep Memphis from being an automatic win for opponents. We remain cautious about an immediate Play-In leap after a 27th-ranked defense. The productive version of this season would identify sustainable combinations and give Boozer a team to grow within, rather than asking a rookie to become the entire operating system.

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Our coverage of these teams

A matching published game video is not available in the verified archive yet.

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