2026-10-20 · 8:30 PM CT · Regular season
San Antonio Spurs62-20ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.
Oklahoma City Thunder2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 119.0 | 5 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 44.1 | 12 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 25.8 | 19 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 12.0 | 2 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 9.7 | 2 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 5.5 | 6 / 30 |
| FG% | 48.4% | 5 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 9 / 30 |
| FT% | 81.7% | 3 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 4 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 10.8% | 2 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.261 | 17 / 30 |
San Antonio Spurs2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 119.8 | 3 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 47.0 | 2 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 28.1 | 9 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 12.6 | 4 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 7.5 | 25 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 5.5 | 8 / 30 |
| FG% | 48.3% | 6 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 15 / 30 |
| FT% | 78.7% | 12 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 7 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 11.2% | 4 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.274 | 12 / 30 |
ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.
eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.
Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs enter with scoring averages of 119.0 and 119.8. Start with the kinds of shots they get, not just how many points they score. A clean shot at the rim or an open three can matter more than another difficult jumper.
The shooting comparison is 56.1% eFG for Oklahoma City Thunder and 55.9% for San Antonio Spurs. That measure counts the extra value of a made three. If the defense takes away the first good look, watch whether the offense can create another without rushing.
Ball security is the next pressure point. Oklahoma City Thunder turn it over on an estimated 10.8% of plays; San Antonio Spurs are at 11.2%. Fewer wasted trips mean more chances to score and fewer easy chances going the other way.
After the shot, watch the rebound. Then watch which team earns free throws. Extra shots and trips to the line can keep an offense moving when the shooting cools. The season columns give the baseline; the game columns in our final breakdown will show which advantages actually held up.
Spreads and win probabilities are reserved for confirmed games within the next seven days. This game stays on the schedule; its forecast opens inside that window.
Last season 64-18 | 1st in the West | Conference finals loss to San Antonio, 4-3
2025-26 efficiency 117.6 offense | 106.5 defense | +11.1 net per 100 possessions
The Thunder's 64 wins were supported by a plus-11.1 net rating and the league's best defense, which allowed 106.5 points per 100 possessions. This was not a team surviving on close-game fortune. But San Antonio ended its title defense in a seven-game conference final, where Oklahoma City's depleted creation and Chet Holmgren's hesitation mattered more than the full-season margin.
Sam Presti retained Isaiah Hartenstein and the expensive star core while moving Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Rookie Aday Mara adds size, but the immediate replacements for those perimeter minutes are mostly already employed. Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell will have larger responsibilities, and Jalen Williams returning to dependable health is a bigger offensive addition than the transaction list suggests.
The unresolved issue is dependable depth around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Losing three rotation players reduces the number of useful combinations when injuries or matchups remove a starter. Presti's financial explanation is understandable. It does not make those minutes disappear. Oklahoma City can remain an elite defense and still miss Joe's shooting or Dort's difficult assignments in a particular series.
Projected finish is second in the West. The defensive baseline keeps the floor extremely high. We give San Antonio the slight edge because its young creators can improve without replacing as much of the rotation. A healthy Williams and Mitchell would make first place entirely reasonable.
Last season 62-20 | 2nd in the West | Western champions, NBA Finals loss to New York
2025-26 efficiency 118.7 offense | 110.4 defense | +8.4 net per 100 possessions
San Antonio went from a developing team to a 62-win Western Conference champion, then lost the Finals to New York in five games. Its 118.7 offensive rating and 110.4 defensive rating show why the rise was credible. Victor Wembanyama changed both ends, and the guards supplied enough creation to make the team more than a collection of promising young players.
Brian Wright added Tobias Harris and retained the core, including an extension for Julian Champagnie. Harris gives the forward rotation another experienced scorer. The larger potential gains come from Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper. Castle's assists per 36 minutes increased from 5.5 to 8.9, while Harper's stronger playoff role supplied evidence that more responsibility can be productive.
The front office has chosen development as its main answer to the Finals defeat. That is a defensible choice, but it leaves the same important test. When opponents reduce easy rim chances, can the guards and Wembanyama create efficient shots without rushing the next possession? De'Aaron Fox's fit with a growing Harper also requires a clear closing lineup. Harris helps the rotation, but does not settle those decisions.
Projected finish is first in the West. The two-way baseline was already excellent, and the age of the core supports another step forward. We expect a close race with Oklahoma City rather than an automatic runaway. The playoff challenge is converting that progress into better late-game execution.
A matching published game video is not available in the verified archive yet.
