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NBA · MATCHUP PREVIEW

New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder

2026-10-06 · 7:00 PM CT · Preseason · neutral site

ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.

The team numbers

New Orleans Pelicans

2025–26 regular season

MeasureSeason averageLeague rank
STANDARD STATS
Points / game115.516 / 30
Rebounds / game43.915 / 30
Assists / game25.124 / 30
Turnovers / game13.511 / 30
Steals / game8.99 / 30
Blocks / game5.29 / 30
FG%46.6%20 / 30
3PT%34.7%24 / 30
FT%78.4%14 / 30
THE LAB MEASURES
eFG%52.7%27 / 30
Turnover rate11.7%10 / 30
Offensive rebound rate——
Free-throw pressure0.2848 / 30

Oklahoma City Thunder

2025–26 regular season

MeasureSeason averageLeague rank
STANDARD STATS
Points / game119.05 / 30
Rebounds / game44.112 / 30
Assists / game25.819 / 30
Turnovers / game12.02 / 30
Steals / game9.72 / 30
Blocks / game5.56 / 30
FG%48.4%5 / 30
3PT%36.5%9 / 30
FT%81.7%3 / 30
THE LAB MEASURES
eFG%56.1%4 / 30
Turnover rate10.8%2 / 30
Offensive rebound rate——
Free-throw pressure0.26117 / 30

ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.

How we read the Lab measures

eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.

THE LAB READ

How this game can be won

This is preseason. Use the team numbers as background and watch how the new lineups play together. No spread or Lab win probability is published for this game.

New Orleans Pelicans · our 2026-10-03 assessment

New Orleans Pelicans

Last season 26-56 | 11th in the West | Missed postseason

2025-26 efficiency 113.3 offense | 117.6 defense | -4.4 net per 100 possessions

New Orleans finished 11th at 26-56 and missed the postseason. A minus-4.4 net rating reflected trouble at both ends. The Pelicans took a league-high 58 percent of their shots in the paint, yet their team conversion there was poor. Getting close to the basket and getting a useful attempt are different accomplishments.

Joe Dumars hired Jamahl Mosley and added Bennedict Mathurin, AJ Johnson and Trendon Watford. Mathurin supplies scoring and free-throw pressure. Dejounte Murray's return gives the existing group a more experienced organizer, while Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen enter their second seasons. Trey Murphy and Zion Williamson remain important offensive pieces around that developing foundation.

The front office has largely retained the core that produced 26 wins. That places a considerable burden on Mosley to improve a defense that allowed 117.6 points per 100 possessions and on the young players to become more efficient. Mathurin's ability to draw fouls helps, but does not by itself resolve paint congestion or lineup defense. Herbert Jones rediscovering his defensive impact would matter more than simply adding another scorer.

Projected finish is 12th in the West. Better organization and internal growth should make New Orleans more competitive, but the defensive evidence is still too weak for a playoff prediction. There is a plausible path into the Play-In race. It starts with a functioning five-man defense and ends with better conversion from the shots this team already prefers.

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Oklahoma City Thunder · our 2026-10-03 assessment

Oklahoma City Thunder

Last season 64-18 | 1st in the West | Conference finals loss to San Antonio, 4-3

2025-26 efficiency 117.6 offense | 106.5 defense | +11.1 net per 100 possessions

The Thunder's 64 wins were supported by a plus-11.1 net rating and the league's best defense, which allowed 106.5 points per 100 possessions. This was not a team surviving on close-game fortune. But San Antonio ended its title defense in a seven-game conference final, where Oklahoma City's depleted creation and Chet Holmgren's hesitation mattered more than the full-season margin.

Sam Presti retained Isaiah Hartenstein and the expensive star core while moving Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Rookie Aday Mara adds size, but the immediate replacements for those perimeter minutes are mostly already employed. Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell will have larger responsibilities, and Jalen Williams returning to dependable health is a bigger offensive addition than the transaction list suggests.

The unresolved issue is dependable depth around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Losing three rotation players reduces the number of useful combinations when injuries or matchups remove a starter. Presti's financial explanation is understandable. It does not make those minutes disappear. Oklahoma City can remain an elite defense and still miss Joe's shooting or Dort's difficult assignments in a particular series.

Projected finish is second in the West. The defensive baseline keeps the floor extremely high. We give San Antonio the slight edge because its young creators can improve without replacing as much of the rotation. A healthy Williams and Mitchell would make first place entirely reasonable.

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