2026-10-24 · 8:00 PM CT · Regular season
New Orleans Pelicans26-56
Denver Nuggets54-28ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.
New Orleans Pelicans2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 115.5 | 16 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 43.9 | 15 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 25.1 | 24 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 13.5 | 11 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 8.9 | 9 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 5.2 | 9 / 30 |
| FG% | 46.6% | 20 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 24 / 30 |
| FT% | 78.4% | 14 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 27 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 11.7% | 10 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.284 | 8 / 30 |
Denver Nuggets2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 122.1 | 1 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 44.0 | 14 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 29.0 | 4 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 12.2 | 3 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 6.8 | 30 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 4.0 | 28 / 30 |
| FG% | 49.6% | 2 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 1 / 30 |
| FT% | 80.8% | 5 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 1 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 10.9% | 3 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.294 | 4 / 30 |
ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.
eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.
New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets enter with scoring averages of 115.5 and 122.1. Start with the kinds of shots they get, not just how many points they score. A clean shot at the rim or an open three can matter more than another difficult jumper.
The shooting comparison is 52.7% eFG for New Orleans Pelicans and 57.7% for Denver Nuggets. That measure counts the extra value of a made three. If the defense takes away the first good look, watch whether the offense can create another without rushing.
Ball security is the next pressure point. New Orleans Pelicans turn it over on an estimated 11.7% of plays; Denver Nuggets are at 10.9%. Fewer wasted trips mean more chances to score and fewer easy chances going the other way.
After the shot, watch the rebound. Then watch which team earns free throws. Extra shots and trips to the line can keep an offense moving when the shooting cools. The season columns give the baseline; the game columns in our final breakdown will show which advantages actually held up.
Spreads and win probabilities are reserved for confirmed games within the next seven days. This game stays on the schedule; its forecast opens inside that window.
Last season 26-56 | 11th in the West | Missed postseason
2025-26 efficiency 113.3 offense | 117.6 defense | -4.4 net per 100 possessions
New Orleans finished 11th at 26-56 and missed the postseason. A minus-4.4 net rating reflected trouble at both ends. The Pelicans took a league-high 58 percent of their shots in the paint, yet their team conversion there was poor. Getting close to the basket and getting a useful attempt are different accomplishments.
Joe Dumars hired Jamahl Mosley and added Bennedict Mathurin, AJ Johnson and Trendon Watford. Mathurin supplies scoring and free-throw pressure. Dejounte Murray's return gives the existing group a more experienced organizer, while Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen enter their second seasons. Trey Murphy and Zion Williamson remain important offensive pieces around that developing foundation.
The front office has largely retained the core that produced 26 wins. That places a considerable burden on Mosley to improve a defense that allowed 117.6 points per 100 possessions and on the young players to become more efficient. Mathurin's ability to draw fouls helps, but does not by itself resolve paint congestion or lineup defense. Herbert Jones rediscovering his defensive impact would matter more than simply adding another scorer.
Projected finish is 12th in the West. Better organization and internal growth should make New Orleans more competitive, but the defensive evidence is still too weak for a playoff prediction. There is a plausible path into the Play-In race. It starts with a functioning five-man defense and ends with better conversion from the shots this team already prefers.
Last season 54-28 | 3rd in the West | First-round loss to Minnesota, 4-2
2025-26 efficiency 121.2 offense | 116.0 defense | +5.2 net per 100 possessions
Denver finished third at 54-28 and lost to Minnesota in six games in the first round. Its 121.2 offensive rating was the league's best. A defense allowing 116.0 points per 100 possessions, ranked 21st, explains why that advantage did not make the Nuggets a complete contender. Nikola Jokic could create a good shot without making the next defensive possession a good one.
The front office added DeMar DeRozan, Marvin Bagley III and Alpha Diallo while losing Peyton Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr. DeRozan can organize scoring possessions when Jokic rests. Diallo provides a possible defensive answer on the wing. Neither addition removes the importance of Aaron Gordon, whose 36-game season left Denver short of its most useful defensive forward for long stretches.
The unresolved concern is how the supporting cast generates enough stops without sacrificing the offense. Watson's departure makes that assignment harder. Bagley is another option behind Jokic, but does not establish a proven defensive bench. DeRozan helps with shot creation in an area that was already strong. Management still has to demonstrate that the tradeoff produces better lineups rather than simply a different scoring distribution.
Projected finish is sixth in the West. Jokic and Jamal Murray keep Denver in the direct-playoff group, but we do not credit a meaningful defensive improvement before seeing it. Better Gordon availability could move the Nuggets above that forecast. The case for a title still depends on the possessions their offense cannot rescue.
A matching published game video is not available in the verified archive yet.
