ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.
The team numbers
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|
| STANDARD STATS |
|---|
| Points / game | 112.4 | 27 / 30 |
|---|
| Rebounds / game | 41.9 | 25 / 30 |
|---|
| Assists / game | 27.7 | 12 / 30 |
|---|
| Turnovers / game | 13.8 | 17 / 30 |
|---|
| Steals / game | 7.4 | 27 / 30 |
|---|
| Blocks / game | 4.6 | 19 / 30 |
|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 26 / 30 |
|---|
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 18 / 30 |
|---|
| FT% | 77.6% | 17 / 30 |
|---|
| THE LAB MEASURES |
|---|
| eFG% | 53.3% | 23 / 30 |
|---|
| Turnover rate | 12.3% | 16 / 30 |
|---|
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
|---|
| Free-throw pressure | 0.252 | 20 / 30 |
|---|
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|
| STANDARD STATS |
|---|
| Points / game | 119.0 | 5 / 30 |
|---|
| Rebounds / game | 44.1 | 12 / 30 |
|---|
| Assists / game | 25.8 | 19 / 30 |
|---|
| Turnovers / game | 12.0 | 2 / 30 |
|---|
| Steals / game | 9.7 | 2 / 30 |
|---|
| Blocks / game | 5.5 | 6 / 30 |
|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 5 / 30 |
|---|
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 9 / 30 |
|---|
| FT% | 81.7% | 3 / 30 |
|---|
| THE LAB MEASURES |
|---|
| eFG% | 56.1% | 4 / 30 |
|---|
| Turnover rate | 10.8% | 2 / 30 |
|---|
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
|---|
| Free-throw pressure | 0.261 | 17 / 30 |
|---|
ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.
How we read the Lab measures
eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.
THE LAB READHow this game can be won
This is preseason. Use the team numbers as background and watch how the new lineups play together. No spread or Lab win probability is published for this game.
Indiana Pacers · our 2026-10-03 assessment
Indiana Pacers
Last season 19-63 | 14th in the East | Missed postseason
2025-26 efficiency 110.1 offense | 117.9 defense | -7.8 net per 100 possessions
Indiana finished 14th at 19-63 while Tyrese Haliburton recovered from the Achilles injury suffered in the 2025 Finals. A 110.1 offensive rating and minus-7.8 net rating describe that absence, not a normal version of the intended team. The movement remained recognizable, but the passing advantages and conversion were nowhere near the level that powered the Finals run.
Kevin Pritchard's largest improvement is Haliburton returning. Ivica Zubac gets a full camp after arriving at the previous deadline, and Kelly Oubre Jr. and Larry Nance Jr. add veteran depth. Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and the other returning contributors give Rick Carlisle a familiar framework. Jarace Walker's stronger finish last season adds another internal development route.
The concern is assuming recovery means immediate restoration of every advantage. Haliburton still needs to demonstrate that his pace and creation hold over a long season. Zubac supplies size, screening and rebounding, but does not space the floor like Myles Turner. Management has replaced some departed production without rebuilding the exact Finals rotation. The bench and the first-unit spacing need to function in this new configuration.
Projected finish is eighth in the East. This is a substantial rebound driven by a returning primary creator and a proven supporting core. We remain cautious about predicting instant contention after an Achilles recovery. Indiana could be better in the playoffs than its record if the offense becomes sharper during the year. The first requirement is that the returning system creates good shots again.
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Oklahoma City Thunder · our 2026-10-03 assessment
Oklahoma City Thunder
Last season 64-18 | 1st in the West | Conference finals loss to San Antonio, 4-3
2025-26 efficiency 117.6 offense | 106.5 defense | +11.1 net per 100 possessions
The Thunder's 64 wins were supported by a plus-11.1 net rating and the league's best defense, which allowed 106.5 points per 100 possessions. This was not a team surviving on close-game fortune. But San Antonio ended its title defense in a seven-game conference final, where Oklahoma City's depleted creation and Chet Holmgren's hesitation mattered more than the full-season margin.
Sam Presti retained Isaiah Hartenstein and the expensive star core while moving Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Rookie Aday Mara adds size, but the immediate replacements for those perimeter minutes are mostly already employed. Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell will have larger responsibilities, and Jalen Williams returning to dependable health is a bigger offensive addition than the transaction list suggests.
The unresolved issue is dependable depth around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Losing three rotation players reduces the number of useful combinations when injuries or matchups remove a starter. Presti's financial explanation is understandable. It does not make those minutes disappear. Oklahoma City can remain an elite defense and still miss Joe's shooting or Dort's difficult assignments in a particular series.
Projected finish is second in the West. The defensive baseline keeps the floor extremely high. We give San Antonio the slight edge because its young creators can improve without replacing as much of the rotation. A healthy Williams and Mitchell would make first place entirely reasonable.
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