2026-10-26 · 9:00 PM CT · Regular season
Denver Nuggets54-28ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.
Golden State Warriors2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 114.6 | 22 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 42.3 | 21 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 28.9 | 6 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 15.0 | 26 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 9.7 | 2 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 4.2 | 26 / 30 |
| FG% | 46.1% | 24 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 20 / 30 |
| FT% | 80.7% | 6 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 13 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 13.3% | 27 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.238 | 24 / 30 |
Denver Nuggets2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 122.1 | 1 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 44.0 | 14 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 29.0 | 4 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 12.2 | 3 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 6.8 | 30 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 4.0 | 28 / 30 |
| FG% | 49.6% | 2 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 1 / 30 |
| FT% | 80.8% | 5 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 1 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 10.9% | 3 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.294 | 4 / 30 |
ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.
eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.
Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets enter with scoring averages of 114.6 and 122.1. Start with the kinds of shots they get, not just how many points they score. A clean shot at the rim or an open three can matter more than another difficult jumper.
The shooting comparison is 54.9% eFG for Golden State Warriors and 57.7% for Denver Nuggets. That measure counts the extra value of a made three. If the defense takes away the first good look, watch whether the offense can create another without rushing.
Ball security is the next pressure point. Golden State Warriors turn it over on an estimated 13.3% of plays; Denver Nuggets are at 10.9%. Fewer wasted trips mean more chances to score and fewer easy chances going the other way.
After the shot, watch the rebound. Then watch which team earns free throws. Extra shots and trips to the line can keep an offense moving when the shooting cools. The season columns give the baseline; the game columns in our final breakdown will show which advantages actually held up.
Spreads and win probabilities are reserved for confirmed games within the next seven days. This game stays on the schedule; its forecast opens inside that window.
Last season 37-45 | 10th in the West | Play-In exit, missed playoffs
2025-26 efficiency 113.8 offense | 114.4 defense | -0.5 net per 100 possessions
Golden State finished tenth at 37-45 and lost in the Play-In. Its minus-0.5 net rating showed a team close to average, but not close to the West's top tier. Injuries reduced Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler's shared contribution, leaving too many nights when the offense lacked enough reliable creation beyond Curry.
Mike Dunleavy Jr. retained the veteran core, drafted Yaxel Lendeborg and added Georges Niang. Lendeborg supplies size and energy, while Niang can stretch a defense. Brandin Podziemski's stronger finish last season gives the returning guards a plausible improvement path. But Kristaps Porzingis entered camp out indefinitely with a health issue, while Butler and Moses Moody continue knee rehabilitation.
The concern is availability concentrated in the very players expected to lift the ceiling. A healthy Porzingis changes spacing and rim protection. A healthy Butler supplies another creator and foul pressure. Management has not built a similarly dependable alternative if those contributions arrive late or remain intermittent. Lendeborg can help immediately, but a rookie should not be the primary insurance policy for an aging team's largest risks.
Projected finish is tenth in the West. Curry keeps Golden State competitive, and the later-season roster could be stronger than its place. We still discount a forecast that requires everyone to be healthy together for the first time. The Warriors need enough early wins to make a better spring lineup relevant, rather than another explanation for why it arrived too late.
Last season 54-28 | 3rd in the West | First-round loss to Minnesota, 4-2
2025-26 efficiency 121.2 offense | 116.0 defense | +5.2 net per 100 possessions
Denver finished third at 54-28 and lost to Minnesota in six games in the first round. Its 121.2 offensive rating was the league's best. A defense allowing 116.0 points per 100 possessions, ranked 21st, explains why that advantage did not make the Nuggets a complete contender. Nikola Jokic could create a good shot without making the next defensive possession a good one.
The front office added DeMar DeRozan, Marvin Bagley III and Alpha Diallo while losing Peyton Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr. DeRozan can organize scoring possessions when Jokic rests. Diallo provides a possible defensive answer on the wing. Neither addition removes the importance of Aaron Gordon, whose 36-game season left Denver short of its most useful defensive forward for long stretches.
The unresolved concern is how the supporting cast generates enough stops without sacrificing the offense. Watson's departure makes that assignment harder. Bagley is another option behind Jokic, but does not establish a proven defensive bench. DeRozan helps with shot creation in an area that was already strong. Management still has to demonstrate that the tradeoff produces better lineups rather than simply a different scoring distribution.
Projected finish is sixth in the West. Jokic and Jamal Murray keep Denver in the direct-playoff group, but we do not credit a meaningful defensive improvement before seeing it. Better Gordon availability could move the Nuggets above that forecast. The case for a title still depends on the possessions their offense cannot rescue.
A matching published game video is not available in the verified archive yet.
