2026-10-22 · 8:30 PM CT · Regular season
Denver Nuggets54-28ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.
Denver Nuggets2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 122.1 | 1 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 44.0 | 14 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 29.0 | 4 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 12.2 | 3 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 6.8 | 30 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 4.0 | 28 / 30 |
| FG% | 49.6% | 2 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 1 / 30 |
| FT% | 80.8% | 5 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 1 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 10.9% | 3 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.294 | 4 / 30 |
Oklahoma City Thunder2025–26 regular season
| Measure | Season average | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| STANDARD STATS | ||
| Points / game | 119.0 | 5 / 30 |
| Rebounds / game | 44.1 | 12 / 30 |
| Assists / game | 25.8 | 19 / 30 |
| Turnovers / game | 12.0 | 2 / 30 |
| Steals / game | 9.7 | 2 / 30 |
| Blocks / game | 5.5 | 6 / 30 |
| FG% | 48.4% | 5 / 30 |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 9 / 30 |
| FT% | 81.7% | 3 / 30 |
| THE LAB MEASURES | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 4 / 30 |
| Turnover rate | 10.8% | 2 / 30 |
| Offensive rebound rate | — | — |
| Free-throw pressure | 0.261 | 17 / 30 |
ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.
eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.
Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder enter with scoring averages of 122.1 and 119.0. Start with the kinds of shots they get, not just how many points they score. A clean shot at the rim or an open three can matter more than another difficult jumper.
The shooting comparison is 57.7% eFG for Denver Nuggets and 56.1% for Oklahoma City Thunder. That measure counts the extra value of a made three. If the defense takes away the first good look, watch whether the offense can create another without rushing.
Ball security is the next pressure point. Denver Nuggets turn it over on an estimated 10.9% of plays; Oklahoma City Thunder are at 10.8%. Fewer wasted trips mean more chances to score and fewer easy chances going the other way.
After the shot, watch the rebound. Then watch which team earns free throws. Extra shots and trips to the line can keep an offense moving when the shooting cools. The season columns give the baseline; the game columns in our final breakdown will show which advantages actually held up.
Spreads and win probabilities are reserved for confirmed games within the next seven days. This game stays on the schedule; its forecast opens inside that window.
Last season 54-28 | 3rd in the West | First-round loss to Minnesota, 4-2
2025-26 efficiency 121.2 offense | 116.0 defense | +5.2 net per 100 possessions
Denver finished third at 54-28 and lost to Minnesota in six games in the first round. Its 121.2 offensive rating was the league's best. A defense allowing 116.0 points per 100 possessions, ranked 21st, explains why that advantage did not make the Nuggets a complete contender. Nikola Jokic could create a good shot without making the next defensive possession a good one.
The front office added DeMar DeRozan, Marvin Bagley III and Alpha Diallo while losing Peyton Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr. DeRozan can organize scoring possessions when Jokic rests. Diallo provides a possible defensive answer on the wing. Neither addition removes the importance of Aaron Gordon, whose 36-game season left Denver short of its most useful defensive forward for long stretches.
The unresolved concern is how the supporting cast generates enough stops without sacrificing the offense. Watson's departure makes that assignment harder. Bagley is another option behind Jokic, but does not establish a proven defensive bench. DeRozan helps with shot creation in an area that was already strong. Management still has to demonstrate that the tradeoff produces better lineups rather than simply a different scoring distribution.
Projected finish is sixth in the West. Jokic and Jamal Murray keep Denver in the direct-playoff group, but we do not credit a meaningful defensive improvement before seeing it. Better Gordon availability could move the Nuggets above that forecast. The case for a title still depends on the possessions their offense cannot rescue.
Last season 64-18 | 1st in the West | Conference finals loss to San Antonio, 4-3
2025-26 efficiency 117.6 offense | 106.5 defense | +11.1 net per 100 possessions
The Thunder's 64 wins were supported by a plus-11.1 net rating and the league's best defense, which allowed 106.5 points per 100 possessions. This was not a team surviving on close-game fortune. But San Antonio ended its title defense in a seven-game conference final, where Oklahoma City's depleted creation and Chet Holmgren's hesitation mattered more than the full-season margin.
Sam Presti retained Isaiah Hartenstein and the expensive star core while moving Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Rookie Aday Mara adds size, but the immediate replacements for those perimeter minutes are mostly already employed. Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell will have larger responsibilities, and Jalen Williams returning to dependable health is a bigger offensive addition than the transaction list suggests.
The unresolved issue is dependable depth around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Losing three rotation players reduces the number of useful combinations when injuries or matchups remove a starter. Presti's financial explanation is understandable. It does not make those minutes disappear. Oklahoma City can remain an elite defense and still miss Joe's shooting or Dort's difficult assignments in a particular series.
Projected finish is second in the West. The defensive baseline keeps the floor extremely high. We give San Antonio the slight edge because its young creators can improve without replacing as much of the rotation. A healthy Williams and Mitchell would make first place entirely reasonable.
A matching published game video is not available in the verified archive yet.
