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NBA · MATCHUP PREVIEW

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers

2026-10-16 · 6:00 PM CT · Preseason

ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. NBA comparisons use the completed 2025–26 regular season. Each upcoming fixture labels preseason or regular-season status.

The team numbers

Boston Celtics

2025–26 regular season

MeasureSeason averageLeague rank
STANDARD STATS
Points / game114.919 / 30
Rebounds / game46.43 / 30
Assists / game24.627 / 30
Turnovers / game11.51 / 30
Steals / game7.128 / 30
Blocks / game5.011 / 30
FG%46.7%16 / 30
3PT%36.7%8 / 30
FT%80.7%7 / 30
THE LAB MEASURES
eFG%55.3%11 / 30
Turnover rate10.5%1 / 30
Offensive rebound rate——
Free-throw pressure0.20730 / 30

Philadelphia 76ers

2025–26 regular season

MeasureSeason averageLeague rank
STANDARD STATS
Points / game115.914 / 30
Rebounds / game43.617 / 30
Assists / game24.629 / 30
Turnovers / game13.07 / 30
Steals / game9.16 / 30
Blocks / game5.74 / 30
FG%46.2%23 / 30
3PT%34.9%23 / 30
FT%80.9%4 / 30
THE LAB MEASURES
eFG%53.0%26 / 30
Turnover rate11.4%6 / 30
Offensive rebound rate——
Free-throw pressure0.27511 / 30

ESPN team totals and game box scores checked October 6. NBA season averages and ranks use 2025–26; preseason game results are shown separately. Ranks are within the league, with ties sharing a rank; a lower turnover rate is better. Season offensive rebound rate needs opponent defensive-rebound totals, which this feed does not supply. A dash means unavailable. This game’s offensive rebound rate uses the opponent’s actual rebounds.

How we read the Lab measures

eFG% gives a made three its extra value. Turnover rate estimates the share of plays lost before a shot. Offensive rebound rate is the share of available offensive rebounds collected. Free-throw pressure is FTA/FGA. The calculations are (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM)/FGA; TOV/(FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV); OREB/(OREB + opponent DREB); and FTA/FGA.

THE LAB READ

How this game can be won

This is preseason. Use the team numbers as background and watch how the new lineups play together. No spread or Lab win probability is published for this game.

Boston Celtics · our 2026-10-03 assessment

Boston Celtics

Last season 56-26 | 2nd in the East | Lost in First Round

2025-26 efficiency 120.0 offense | 111.7 defense | +8.3 net per 100 possessions

Boston finished second at 56-26 and lost to Philadelphia in the first round. A 120.0 offensive rating and plus-8.3 net rating confirmed that Joe Mazzulla still had a strong regular-season team while Jayson Tatum missed most of the schedule. The playoff failure exposed a familiar limitation when the outside shots stopped falling.

Brad Stevens traded Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia for Paul George and draft compensation, added Mitchell Robinson and brought in Mike Conley. A full season of Tatum is the largest potential improvement. Robinson supplies offensive rebounds, interior defense and a finishing target. Derrick White and Payton Pritchard give the offense continuity around a substantially altered wing rotation.

The front office repaired some interior depth without fully changing the shot profile. Boston took only 41 percent of its attempts in the paint and again ranked last in free-throw rate. George is another comfortable jump shooter, so replacing Brown with him does not automatically produce more rim pressure. George and Robinson also introduce availability questions. Stevens has built a plausible regular-season contender, but the alternative when the threes fail still needs to become more convincing.

Projected finish is second in the East. Tatum's return, established ball security and Mazzulla's regular-season structure support another strong finish. We place New York slightly ahead because its core requires less integration. Boston can finish first without proving that its new roster has solved the playoff weakness. Those are separate tests.

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Philadelphia 76ers · our 2026-10-03 assessment

Philadelphia 76ers

Last season 45-37 | 7th in the East | Lost in conference semifinals

2025-26 efficiency 114.3 offense | 114.4 defense | -0.1 net per 100 possessions

Philadelphia finished seventh at 45-37, beat Boston and lost to New York in the second round. The regular-season net rating was minus-0.1, so the previous team was not a clear contender by sustained efficiency. This summer's roster changes are too significant to carry that baseline forward without a substantial adjustment.

Daryl Morey acquired Jaylen Brown, signed LeBron James and added supporting pieces including Anfernee Simons and Dean Wade. They join Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. The new team has far more ways to create a shot, and James can help possessions that previously required Maxey or Embiid to solve everything. Simons supplies valuable shooting when the primary scorers attract help.

The remaining problems are availability, role distribution and defense. Embiid played only 96 regular-season games across the last three years, and James turns 42 during the coming season. Brown and Embiid both carried very high playoff usage, so Nick Nurse must establish which possessions belong to whom. Morey assembled star talent, but did not make the backup center situation equally reassuring. Missing stars could turn those apparently small depth questions into nightly requirements.

Projected finish is fourth in the East. We credit the clear talent upgrade while expecting rest, absences and integration to affect the record. Philadelphia's best lineup has a championship-level ceiling. Its place is deliberately more cautious because a regular season measures the lineups available on ordinary nights, not only the one fans hope to see in May.

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Our coverage of these teams

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