Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas Tech Red Raiders
2026-10-17 · 2:30 PM CT · Scheduled
ESPN standings data retrieved October 6, 2026. 2026 season totals at this snapshot.
| Measure | Arizona State Sun Devils | Texas Tech Red Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 5-0 |
| Points scored / game | 33.2 | 34.8 |
| Points allowed / game | 31.8 | 16.2 |
| Points differential | +6 | +93 |
How this game can be won
Arizona State Sun Devils average 33.2 points scored and 31.8 allowed; Texas Tech Red Raiders average 34.8 scored and 16.2 allowed. The first question is whether each offense can make ordinary downs useful. Repeated manageable gains keep more of the playbook available.
Watch the long gains separately. An offense can move steadily without breaking a big play, or spend an afternoon waiting for one big play to rescue it. The more repeatable approach is the one that can still move the ball when the defense removes its easiest option.
Field position changes the job. Starting near midfield means fewer yards are needed before a scoring chance. Once the drive reaches threatening territory, watch whether the offense finishes it with useful points instead of wasting the trip.
Finally, count the lost possessions. Turnovers can change a close game without explaining every down that came before them. Our football model needs efficiency, explosive-play rate, starting field position, drive finishing and turnover margin together. A scoring average or a third-down rate cannot replace that set.
Closer to game day
Spreads and win probabilities are reserved for confirmed games within the next seven days. This game stays on the schedule; its forecast opens inside that window.
Texas Tech Red Raiders · our 2026-10-04 assessment
Texas Tech
5-0 overall | Preview AP No. 12 | Matchup Lab No. 56 | Index 53.3
Texas Tech is unbeaten, but its season performance is considerably less settled than 5-0 suggests. Its charted offensive successful-play rate has ranged from 33.3 to 53.8 percent, while the defense has alternated between strong resistance and much more permissive games. The latest win moved the possession balance from negative for the season to positive. It did not establish five weeks of clean, repeatable control.
The 29-7 Colorado result is the clearest example. Texas Tech gained 315 yards to Colorado's 375 and converted three of 12 third downs, with neither fourth-down attempt successful. Four interceptions, including a touchdown return, supplied a very different kind of advantage. Joey McGuire called it 'some really ugly football at times.' The conversion numbers did not argue.
Friday's preview asked for ordinary possessions and cleaner ball security. Tech delivered the latter, with no giveaways, while the former remained uneven. Colorado's mistakes cannot become an offensive plan for the next opponent. The defense deserves credit for the takeaways and for holding Colorado to seven, but allowing successful plays on 55 percent of charted snaps is a different story from consistently smothering an offense. The final was comfortable. The route deserves a longer conversation.
Across the season, qualifying stops have handed the offense an average start at its own 28.5 over 36 possessions. Game averages range from its own 18.0 to 42.8. In the narrower 26-possession sample without an identified return or penalty effect, the average is its own 27.7. The stops provide opportunities, but generally still leave a long drive to complete. The offense has produced an estimated 4.15 points before extra points per scoring opportunity. That payoff must be read alongside how often it can build the next drive.
| Season points per game | 34.8 scored / 16.2 allowed |
| Successful plays against FBS | 46.2% offense / 41.7% allowed |
| High impact plays against FBS | 8.1% offense / 7.4% allowed |
| Season possession balance | 10 takeaways / 8 giveaways |
Our coverage of these teams
A matching published game video is not available in the verified archive yet.