USC Trojans

Our team assessment

Article cutoff 2026-10-04

USC

5-1 overall | Preview AP No. 18 | Matchup Lab No. 58 | Index 52.8

USC's season has combined a useful offense with a defense that has too often allowed the next answer. Its offensive successful-play rate is 53.7 percent, but opponents have produced high-impact plays at 10.7 percent, well above USC's 7.1 percent. Six games have produced six giveaways and five takeaways. The Trojans have not enjoyed a dependable possession cushion that explains away the defensive concerns.

The 25-21 win over Washington was a meaningful defensive improvement. Washington converted one of 12 third downs, and Jahkeem Stewart's fumble return supplied the go-ahead touchdown. USC gained 360 yards and held the ball for nearly 35 minutes, but nine penalties for 94 yards and only five third-down conversions kept the offense from creating comfortable separation.

Lincoln Riley said the Trojans were 'really outplaying them' for a long stretch. The defense and possession time support part of that case; the penalties explain why it still needed a defensive score. Friday's preview highlighted Washington's difficulty sustaining drives and USC's vulnerable coverage. Both appeared, including a long Washington touchdown. USC improved the latest defensive successful-play allowance to 35.7 percent after three charted weeks at 50 percent or worse. The next task is to repeat that improvement without another emergency touchdown.

Across the season, qualifying stops have handed the offense an average start at its own 31.7 over 25 possessions. Game averages range from its own 21.6 to 48.0. In the narrower 13-possession sample without an identified return or penalty effect, the average is its own 26.0. The stops provide opportunities, but generally still leave a long drive to complete. The offense has produced an estimated 4.35 points before extra points per scoring opportunity. That payoff must be read alongside how often it can build the next drive.

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